Heat vs. Wizards prediction, odds, line: 2021 NBA picks, Dec. 28 best bets from model on 48-24 run

The Miami Heat welcome the Washington Wizards to Florida for an Eastern Conference clash on Tuesday. Miami is 21-13 this season, with Washington bringing a 17-16 record into this contest. P.J. Tucker (leg) is listed as questionable for Miami, with Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Dewayne Dedmon, Markieff Morris and Victor Oladipo ruled out. Bradley Beal (protocols) is listed as questionable for Washington with Montrezl HarrellRui Hachimura,  Thomas Bryant, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Holiday and Raul Neto ruled out.


Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a 6.5-point home favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 208.5 in the latest odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Wizards vs. Heat match-up, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 48-24 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Wizards and locked in its NBA picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Wizards vs. Heat:

  • Wizards vs. Heat spread: Heat -6.5
  • Wizards vs. Heat over-under: 208.5 points
  • Wizards vs. Heat money line: Heat -270, Wizards +220
  • WASH: The Wizards are 6-13-1 against the spread in road games
  • MIA: The Heat are 9-6 against the spread in home games

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards

Why the Wizards can cover

Washington is leading the NBA in 3-pointers allowed this season, with opponents making only 10.4 triples per game. The Wizards are also in the top 10 of the NBA in 3-point accuracy allowed (33.8 percent), with Washington leading the league in fast-break points allowed (8.1 per game). Elsewhere on defense, the Wizards are giving up only 22.7 assists per game, a top-eight mark in the NBA, and Washington is above-average on the defensive glass. Miami is just No. 24 in the NBA in turnover avoidance on offense, which could lead to advantageous spots for Washington. 

On the opposite end, the Wizards rank in the top eight of the NBA in field-goal percentage, 2-point percentage and free-throw attempts. Washington also produces 50.1 points in the paint per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and the Wizards are above-average in assists (23.7 per game) and turnover avoidance (13.4 per game). Miami is last in the NBA in blocked shots, which could also pave the way for the Wizards to find success. 

Why the Heat can cover

Miami is excellent on both ends of the floor, and Washington has a few glaring weaknesses for the Heat to exploit. The Heat are out-scoring opponents by nearly four points per 100 possessions, ranking in the top eight of the NBA in offensive rating (110.6 points per 100 possessions) and defensive rating (106.7 points allowed per 100 possessions). Miami leads the NBA in points allowed in the paint, giving up just 39.4 per game, and that is key against a Washington offense that ranks dead-last in the NBA in three-pointers and No. 26 in the NBA in three-point accuracy. 

On offense, the Heat will benefit from Washington’s cautious approach. The Wizards are last in the NBA in steals and second-to-last in turnover creation, with Washington also ranking just No. 27 in the league in preventing free throw attempts for opponents.

How to make Heat vs. Wizards picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Wizards vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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