Lakers vs. Mavericks odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, April 22 predictions from model on 96-60 roll

The Dallas Mavericks host the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday evening in an important Western Conference showdown. After a win on Wednesday, Dallas is 31-26 on the season, with Los Angeles entering at 35-23 overall. Anthony Davis (calf) is projected to return to action for the Lakers after a 30-game absence. Elsewhere, LeBron James (ankle) is out for Los Angeles, with Marc Gasol (finger) listed as questionable. Maxi Kleber (back) is day-to-day for Dallas, while the status of Kristaps Porzingis will be worth monitoring since this the Mavericks are playing the second half of a back-to-back. 

Tip-off is at 9:30 p.m. ET in Dallas. William Hill Sportsbook lists Dallas as a two-point home favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 217 in the latest Lakers vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it has returned over $9,200 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up over $1,200 on its top-rated picks this season, and dating back to last year, it entered Week 18 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 96-60 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Mavericks. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Mavericks vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -2
  • Lakers vs. Mavericks over-under: 217 points
  • Lakers vs. Mavericks money line: Mavericks -130; Lakers +110
  • LAL: The Lakers are 18-15 against the spread in conference games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 14-20 against the spread in conference games

Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Why the Lakers can cover

Los Angeles is outstanding defensively. The Lakers lead the NBA in overall defensive rating, giving up only 1.06 points per possession this season. Frank Vogel’s team also ranks in the top five in effective field goal percentage allowed (52.2 percent), 3-point percentage allowed (34.8 percent), second-chance points allowed (11.7 per game) and turnover creation rate (15.4 percent). The Lakers excel at keeping their opponents away from the free throw line, with a top-10 defensive rebound rate of 74.7 percent for the season. 

Los Angeles is also stout in transition, yielding only 12.0 fast break points per game, and the Lakers protect the rim well with 5.3 blocks per contest. Offensively, Los Angeles isn’t as dominant, but the Lakers are a top-10 team in both field goal percentage (47.4 percent) and free throw creation rate. The Lakers can also take care of the ball in this matchup against a Dallas team that ranks second-worst in the NBA in forcing turnovers on the defensive end.

Why the Mavericks can cover

The Mavericks are led by a potent offense, and Luka Doncic is the team’s centerpiece. Dallas is scoring nearly 1.14 points per possession for the season, and Doncic averages 28.6 points, 8.7 assists and 8.0 rebounds per game. He is flanked by Porzingis, with the big man averaging 20.4 points and 9.3 rebounds per contest, and the Mavericks rank in the top 10 of the NBA in both effective field goal percentage (54.7 percent) and true shooting percentage (57.9 percent). 

Dallas is elite at taking care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 12.2 percent of offensive possessions, and that helps to maximize their efficiency. On the defensive end, the Mavericks are above-average in limiting opponent shooting efficiency, and this is also a reasonably soft matchup. Los Angeles has been a bottom-five offensive team since James went down with injury and, even with Davis slated the return, the Lakers project to score at a below-average rate — especially if Davis sees limited minutes. 

How to make Mavericks vs. Lakers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a roll on NBA picks.

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